1282 Curiosità del 1964: la Lindy's law

Questo e' il podcast probabilmente con piu' errori della storia ... Scrivetemi per correggermi !

Ecco il link del 1964
https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/1964-goldman.pdf

Letta cosi' sembra che l'essere il meno possibili "famosi" e' meglio. Centellinare la propria presenza. Interessante ...

Lindy's Law, despite its awesome air
of common sense, is more a cautionary
fable than an accurate description or
prognostic; for, as one might suppose,
the factors that determine success or
failure for even such simple creatures
as comedians are a good deal more
complicated than the rule suggests. In-
deed, frequency of appearance may be
one of the least important considera-
tions, ranking behind ease and origi-
nality of invention, competition from
rival attractions and the moral and
psychological factors of self-confidence
and self-acceptance; or so at least the
careers of television's greatest indige-
nous comics - Sid Caesar and Jonathan
Winters - would lead one to believe.

Tuttavia l'effetto e' sconosciuto in Italia con questo nome, tanto che non ci sono articoli italiani.

Ecco da Wikipedia inglese:

The Lindy effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.[1] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. In contrast, living creatures and mechanical things follow a bathtub curve where, after "childhood", the mortality rate increases with time. Because life expectancy is probabilistically derived, a thing may become extinct before its "expected" survival. In other words, one needs to gauge both the age and "health" of the thing to determine continued survival.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect